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Do you remember at the first hint of this thing that they were telling folks to stop getting masks; that they didn't work? I remember hearing that from several sources for several days then the narrative changed and those articles were buried.

 

And with all this fervor, I can't believe the media has never addressed self-service gas pumps. There's not a nastier creature on earth than a piece of worn rubber with hundreds of germy hands gripping them 24/7. I've been self-isolating from those things for years.

 

Point is, there's a lot of contradiction. Since media became social the facts get lost in the whirlwind. The maps speak for themselves. The big numbers are where the crowds are greatest and hygiene is lowest. I know that some folks imagine utopia and all that; everyone's entitle to their opinion. History and facts are often unpleasant, but neither is imagined.

 

The reality is that when the shock wears off, folks are going to have to cautiously get back to work or we're going to be in a condition that will make 1932 look like a picnic.

 

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I still don't understand the mask thing.  My understanding is this thing is transferred from hand to mouth so to speak.  I could see the value of a sick person wearing one to help contain the droplets coming from their mouth and nose, but I'd like to hear a learned explanation on the value of walking around with a mask.

 

(Disclaimer: Since the internet doesn't carry tone of voice, I am being inquisitive, not argumentative)

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Unless you are also wearing a face shield,the droplets could cover your face  and make the mask worthless. People put their hands in numerous places and don't realize it.

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The answer is simple:  Countries with sufficient supplies of masks, encouraged mask wearing as a means of controlling the virus spread. Countries that had no supplies, told the public that masks would offer no protection and at the same time phrased the information in such a way as to cause people that did have masks, to be reluctant to wear them, least panic ensue from the mask shortage.

 

Some of the countries in the pro-mask group: Thailand, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan.

 

Some of the countries in the anti-mask group: USA, Canada, and most of Western Europe.

 

Both SK and Taiwan not only encourage mask use, there's a national system of issue to insure all have masks. If I recall correctly in SK, it's 3 per week for adults, and 5 for minors.

 

A headline from the Taiwan News: “Taiwan Railways considers enforcing mask-wearing rule on passengers” 2020/01/31

 

From Thailand: “Thai minister says kick out 'Western' tourists not wearing face masks”

 

Since all the countries, except SK, where mask wearing is encouraged have low rates of infection, I leave the value of mask wearing to you. However, even in SK, having 9000 in a country of 53 million is still pretty good.

 

 

 

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Posted (edited)

2 confirmed cases in: at my county. hope they get better.  really do.   

 

meanwhile, has anyone ever seen these plans for a homemade blower ?

http://www.rayrogers.com/blower.htm 

 

inventive I'd say.   

 

would it really be enough to power a forced air burner ?  Forced air is more fuel efficient isn't it?  Not counting the power to the blower.

How big would the pipe have to be to equal the power of 2 x 1" old chili venturi burners ?    About a good weld heat at an 18"x9" interior?

 

Edited by Bruno

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with my classes cancelled for a few weeks I am managing to get some good work done!

 

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4 hours ago, Bruno said:

How big would the pipe have to be to equal the power of 2 x 1" old chili venturi burners

A 2 inch forced air burner will outperform 2- 1 inch venturi burners. As far as gas savings my big forced air forge is a gas guzzling monster. 

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20 hours ago, Gerald Boggs said:

Had a thought this morning (bad habit)  How many days supplies do hospitals keep in hand?  The answer:  Recommended 96 hours plus 20%.   I'd say "In hindsight, a poor decision"

The US has had poor planning for this type of health emergency for decades and it's not like some very influential folks haven't been warning us.

Have any of you seen the 2015 TED talk by Bill Gates?

https://youtu.be/6Af6b_wyiwI

 

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This whole situation has not hit me very hard as of yet, I work IT and have been on mandatory work from home for the last two weeks now ( I work in the 3M Health Information Systems division ) But both of my sisters are nurses and have already come out and said " We are going to end up getting this, so stay the hell away from us " and are already taking full self isolation steps.  

As of 2 days ago Utah had a total of 257 confirmed cases, so not a lot compared to New York or the Pacific Northwest.  But enough that they shut down schools till at least May 1st. and Isolation restrictions were put in place. Some school districts here were scrambling to put together an online learning portal so kids could continue to learn. My kids district has had one in place for over a year now so they just sent an email saying " keep them home starting Monday, and they know how to login, call the school if you need a computer to allow for this " 

To add insult to injury, we had a 5.7 Magnitude earthquake last Monday which caused a bit of chaos locally as people did a second wave of panic buying " incase the big one hits " as we have had a few decent sized aftershocks ( 3.9 being the biggest i know of ) since then but things have died down. You can still Doordash food ( no contact delivery ) and UPS/FedEx are still making the daily deliveries. But one thing I will admit, with the number of people NOT driving this time of year, our air quality is SOOOO much better then it normally is. Every year when you would look at the mountains in the winter, there was a line on them where the smog and inversion stopped, there was yellowish snow on the bottom, and white on the top, and right now the whole range is white across the entire valley.  

I dont disagree with the isolation orders and have done everything I can to follow them. With my sisters being nurses and me working on the logistical side of the health care industry, if we dont do everything we can to limit the spread of this illness our medical facilities WILL be over run, and people WILL die. There just isnt enough to go around for a " its just a flu " mentality. 

Be safe everyone. 
 

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Robert D. said:

There just isnt enough to go around for a " its just a flu " mentality. 

I don't think people realize just how bad the flu can be. We're so used to it year after year, it's all 'ho-hum, flu season'.

Here's the US 2017/18 flu season estimates from the CDC.

Symptomatic Illnesses,: 44,802,629

Medical visits: 20,731,323

Hospitalizations: 808,129

Deaths: 61,099

So yes, this is just a really nasty flu.

 

2 hours ago, Joshua States said:

Have any of you seen the 2015 TED talk by Bill Gates?

No, sorry, I don't even know what "TED talk" is.  I get most of my information during my morning news read on the Net: NPR, BBC, Fox, and NY Times, etc.

Edited by Gerald Boggs

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Posted (edited)

I have refrained from posting here intentionally in order to get past any initial reactions. It has become obvious that this has become a serious situation but not one that needs to create the panic that many have shown to it. We have gotten past the outbreaks of ebola and West Nile and we will get past covid-19. Please do a little due diligence and don't be too eager to believe all that is on the net or media. There has been a lot of misinformation out there. And as been suggested by our president, "Don't make the cure worse than the disease."

 

Just avoid close contact as much as possible. Wash your hands and disinfect surfaces that you touch often. Use your head and we'll get through this. I'm in one of the most vulnerable groups being over 70 with an pre-existing heart disease and will continue to be cautious but I'm not going to let stress & worry over this cause even worse ill effects.

 

Be smart. Be safe. And keep the forge fires burning.

 

Gary

Edited by Gary Mulkey
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I was initially hesitant to let this thread continue, given our no-politics atmosphere that makes this a special place, and we almost went there, but!  I am glad to see that you guys are using your heads and keeping a critical eye on things.  I went to the store today and was happy to see the panic buying seems to be slowing down a bit.  Still no TP, and meat is rationed, but there are potatoes, unlike the first of last week.

I suspect that we as knifemakers are a bit smarter than the average person.  Something about dealing with potentially deadly stuff on a daily basis tends to weed out the stupid, after all.

And as Joshua said, we've known this was coming for years.  We didn't know exactly when, or in what form, but we knew there would be a fast-spreading virus coming out of eastern asia (where almost every pandemic in history started) or central Africa that there would initially be no immunity for, and that it would require exactly this type of response.  Some people just didn't listen, or chose not to believe it.  

Hang in there.  

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There is definitely a prevalence of misinformation out there. As usual there are people on both sides and as we all know data can be twisted. Several times already I have had to sit on my hands and force myself not to respond. I think a lot of the panic response we are seeing is a psychological response. Humans are very social and therefore when given time alone, respond in a variety of fascinating ways (some reasonable, but most absolutely ridiculous) which is amplified by our heightened ability to communicate in the era of internet.

 

God, I love social isolation - but they wont let me go home at this point (not that home is isolated given 4 stir crazy kids on an early summer vacation). 

 

Also, the data, in my opinion, is very skewed given that most test results are delayed up to a week, so most numbers we are seeing in the news is at least a week old.

 

From a front line perspective I can say this is a very nasty flu, significantly increased infectious rate coupled with higher morbidity (I think it is way too early for actual numbers here). This is especially true for healthcare workers. We are all going to get it, and that gets us sent home from work (to infect our families) and at this point there is no one to replace us. We can predict the normal flu - we can't really predict this. 

 

The issue becomes resources. I have never heard of a 96 hour +20% reserve, maybe that is at individual locations (like at a nursing station or in the ER)? I get daily supply chain updates for one of the major healthcare organizations in the country and the issue becomes the incredible acceleration of utilization. One of the larger hospitals in the organization went from a typical 80-90 day supply of PPE (personal protection  equipment - ie gowns, gloves, masks) to a 25 day supply in a matter of days because of increased utilization during the surge (and THEFT - patients love to walk out of the room with a full box of masks, gloves, etc. - at this point we can leave nothing out in a a convenient location). How do you predict something like this? Should we have a 500 day supply of everything? Everything in a hospital has an expiration date and we would be throwing literally tons of equipment out on a rolling basis. 

 

Everybody loves to hate hospitals and healthcare. It's an easy target, insurance and liability has made for astronomical costs. Even basic equipment in a hospital cost tens of thousands of dollars more because it is "hospital grade" and we can't use anything but the best when patients lives are involved. I can tell you that the healthcare workers aren't getting the money. When you work in healthcare there is no "no weld grinder plans" or "paint can forge" that we can use to cut costs - we gotta go all in with the professional package North Ridge Tool 2x72 grinder with all the bells or whistles and the top of the line Chili forge with 12 burners (because more is better right?) or we are liable for a lawsuit when that blade *TINGS* in the quench and we have to start over. (Gotta get bladesmithing into this post somehow :rolleyes:)

 

I'm guessing I've lost most at this point, I usually only have the time to read 1 or 2 paragraphs, so I get it.  

 

Like Gary said - keep those forge fires burning - the inside of the forge is probably the most sterile environment in our shop! 

 

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, Gerald Boggs said:

I don't even know what "TED talk" is.

It a pretty interesting forum for "innovative ideas worth sharing. "TED" is Technology, Entertainment, and Design.

"Talks" are limited to 18 minutes, so there's little chance of falling asleep during one.

TED talks happen annually and they last 5 days. It's been "a thing" since 1984 or 85. 

Check the TED site out. There's bound to be a few videos that are of interest to you.

Edited by Joshua States

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This forum is really a thing to behold.

It's as if we really can have a rational discussion about politics without all the fuss. And because it's not really about politics, and ideas are presented as bipartisan, or without party; things are seen with an open mind. Perty neat. 

 

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That, sir, is the point. B)  let's keep it that way.

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14 hours ago, owen bush said:

with my classes cancelled for a few weeks I am managing to get some good work done!

 

 im trying to teach myself to make hammers and axes! interesting having a 'pause' - its like the flat bit at the end of a roller coaster at the moment,

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Yes, the flu kills a lot of people every year, but the behavior of this illness isnt similar, symptoms might be, but end result is different.

I nearly died at 18 years old, from bilateral pneumonia in the middle of the summer in Florida. The night before I went to the hospital I felt just fine and was out drinking and having fun, The next morning I tried to go to Sick Call, Was told I was fine and had a hangover, and passed out 20 yards into sand sprints and woke up in Naval Hospital Pensacola about 18 hours later after they stabilized my ability to breathe on my own.  The flu comes at you like a truck and knocks you on your arse, this however does not, and you can go days or even weeks without knowing you are infected.

The current rate of fatalities from this range from .25% to 3% worldwide ( CDC numbers ) ...  If you take those numbers and use just the US population thats a death toll of 81k on the low end to 981k on the high end. 

Both numbers are considerably higher then the Flu which is something we have a reasonable handle on, something we develop vaccines for every year, something MILLIONS of dollars a year are spent on trying to mitigate. But this is a whole different kind of yech... 

Please everyone just be safe... 
 

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They are only effective until the humidity in your breath allows for fluid transfer between the membranes, Once that happens they are no longer a preventative measure. 

Thats why 3M made Target pull them in the Seattle market, because 3M is ONLY manufacturing them at the moment for the healthcare / first response industry. 

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I have a feeling that Drennon has a lot of these on hand for some reason (stockpiling maybe?) and is trying to unload them.

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What happened to the "report" button for spam?

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Sorry, he was a Chinese spammer operating out of a New Jersey server.  Deleted with extreme prejudice.   And I don't know what happened to the report spam button.  But I got him as soon as I was back online.

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well when I posted this I was wondering what it would do to the craft world and small business in general. 

I still don't have a answer long term but I have seen some things start to settle out. 1 classes are stopped for the next several weeks to months, that is putting a financial strain on many for certain. 2 shows are not happen until at least Aug world wide, again some financial strain.  Most of the makers I have talked to are expecting a boom after this settles down, I think that might be wishful thinking. I see a winnowing coming there will be a lot of work on the market, some pent up demand and very little in the way of opportunities for sales, I am not sure large shows will be possible until a covid-19 is reduced to the danger of the flu or less, that could be through medical intervention or some other means. I see marketing and building a brand as being far and away more importing to the health of businesses than ever before. 

Damasteel has pushed the invitational in May online. early plans look like a website with each maker having a "table" each having photos of available knives and a live steam with the maker that each customer can speak with them.  

It is kind of cool and could be great, or fail miserably.  I feel like in  that market (high end kitchen knives mostly) this sort of thing will have a higher chance of work , in general this customer base seems to be younger and more tech savy than a lot of the hunter/bowie collectors. 

I have been working on a couple of projects, including some video stuff that may help me with this sort of thing , but really I need to make a plan and start working toward it.  

such is life. 

MP

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I knew that's what you were trying to do, but it then became a venting thread, sorry.  There aren't as many full-time professional makers hanging out here anymore , compared to say 10 years ago, which is why there haven't been that many answers relevant to your original question.  I have seen a hawk commission blow away in the wind, but not being full time AND still having employment I can't really offer much.  Marketing will be even more important than ever (and it was extremely important to begin with) as this dies down, but that's not a difficult call to make.

That virtual Damasteel show could be good.  Just gotta watch bandwidth, my company has had to give up on videoconferencing because everyone in the world is online at the same time now, and it shows.  

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Posted (edited)

What am I doing? Not much different than what I normally do. I'm still getting a few orders. I mostly have shop supplies for the next few months, in some cases, the year. That will depend on how much the virus effects my business. Since I sell my wares on-line, I don't have to interact with my clients in person. I had a near decade of lean times trying to make it as a blacksmith, so when my business took off, I paid off all my debt, and started saving. So unless civilization collapses, life for me will go on as normal. Since I don't have to work this year, if the orders disappear, I'll go back to playing in the forge, it might be nice to make something just for fun and not feel the pressure that I could be making money.

 

I have cancelled one event, ABANA's cancelled, so that's two, and the third event might not happen. But if you factor in time/effort, these are actually a money loss for me, so while I miss the camaraderie of the events, money wise a non issue.

 

All in all, I view this like I viewed the 2008 collapse, just something to get to the other side of.

Edited by Gerald Boggs

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