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1 hour ago, Gerald Boggs said:

So unless civilization collapses, life for me will go on as normal.

If civilization collapses, people like you are going to be in high demand.

 

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If civilization collapses, I'm going to offer my other skills to whatever warlord emerges. 

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Nice read from NPR on 'Death Rates'

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/03/27/821958435/why-death-rates-from-coronavirus-can-be-deceiving

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for creative people like us who make things at the edge of necesity there is always a juggle, I have survived 25 years as a maker by taking opportunities as they arise and having a lot of strin gs to my bow. Bladesmithing has been having its best days over the last few years ...its not always been like that!  hopefully good work will shine through ...but be prepared to travel diferent roads to survive.  I remember having a conversation with Don Fogg about this ...the best bladesmith of his era (in my mind) and fill'd in sparse times by being a postman and other jobs. 

 

where there is a will there is a way.

 

I am using the time I have due to cancelled classes to make some good work a couple of projects that are beyond what I normaly do.

 

 I will be spending next week (i will be guardian of my kids , schools finished till September!) finishing touches on a new website ...the doorway to the world more so now than ever...

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Yup. What Owen said. I rearranged my entire business model when I saw this coming. Nobody's planning weddings or buying damascus wedding bands this year. Stocked up on chickens, started a bunch of seedlings, getting ready for bees, and will be making a Saga about bees in an Anglo-Saxon theme replete with songs, illustrations, blades, jewelry and more, adding Patreon to the mix. I've always been near the economic edge, but have also kept myself pretty shock-proof, with no debt and a family home in the mountains of Vermont. Diversify; and as the inestimable Don Fogg has said... maintain multiple income streams. Be safe, everyone.

 

 

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Hello: 

 

Well..as mentioned in mt past post I have re-examined our position and it is not good.. I lost all of the trade shows/faires that I send my e-vile minions to due to their being canceled..This translates into no income..which is not a good thing...However I have made some moves that will lessen the negative impact a bit..hopefully to the point where we will make it on one piece.. Royalties do help  bit as well...

 

On the same subject of this damn panic..Seems that three nights past a couple of idiots tried breaking into our home through the back door off of our deck..  They were so focused on what they were doing that while my wife was on the phone to PCSO I slipped out the front door and well..they spent a while sitting down with their shoes off staring at the business end of my shotgun. The sheriff deputies were more than happy to put them up for the night..came out a day later that these two apparently have been breaking into places to get easy money.. Now I do not know if this  is due to the present situation or if these two are just deadbeat burglars..All I do know is we are safe and they are off the street for a while...

 

All in all...I am populating my website as much as I can and hopefully I can generate enough lucre to stay afloat..Going  balls to the wall on this...

 

JPH

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My guess is deadbeat burglars.  Good for you for having the balls to protect what's yours, not that I can say I'm surprised coming from you.  Hopefully the word will spread throughout the underworld that yours is a house to leave the hell alone!

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All:

 

As some of you know, in my day job I run a mid-sized defense contracting company. As a result, I have some insight into what the US government is doing in response to this crisis. 

 

I can tell you that what I'm seeing is utterly unprecedented. I've been in this game for nearly 20 years, and I've never seen this type of response before. Many of the things I'm seeing will take a few weeks to become visible in the public eye, but I'm blown away. No one is holding anything back. I see sincere, focused, and tireless efforts to combat this crisis. 

 

Remember that the people you see on the television are mostly elected officials or their political appointees. The real power in the US government lies at the 3rd or 4th rung of the org chart. These are the non-political career professionals that stay on from election to election. They are the ones that really run things day to day, and they usually are doggedly non-partisan.  Many of these people are incredibly impressive, but often get overridden by the political appointees above them when the news cameras are pointing in their direction.


What I'm seeing is, for the first time, most of the political appointees deferring to the career folks. This is reason for hope. 

 

So, while I'm certainly not here to say: Don't worry, the Federal Gov. will fix it (believe me, I've worked with them for too long to have much faith in anything they attempt), I am letting you know that I feel a modest amount of hope and optimism. I see competent, hard-working people putting everything they have into fixing this thing, and they're doing it with nearly infinite financial backing. 

 

Getting out of this thing is not guaranteed, but I think we've got a solid shot at it. Have faith. The US and the World have endured worse. We will get through this. 

 

Dave

 

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Posted (edited)
13 minutes ago, Dave Stephens said:

Getting out of this thing is not guaranteed, but I think we've got a solid shot at it. Have faith. The US and the World have endured worse. We will get through this. 

It's good to have you back, sir.

 

 

On 3/28/2020 at 9:07 AM, J.Arthur Loose said:

Diversify; and as the inestimable Don Fogg has said... maintain multiple income streams. Be safe, everyone.

 

Always sound advice from the Saxon sage. It's good to have you back too Jul. 

Edited by Joshua States

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22 minutes ago, Dave Stephens said:

So, while I'm certainly not here to say: Don't worry, the Federal Gov. will fix it (believe me, I've worked with them for too long to have much faith in anything they attempt), I am letting you know that I feel a modest amount of hope and optimism. I see competent, hard-working people putting everything they have into fixing this thing, and they're doing it with nearly infinite financial backing

 

Thanks for sharing this insight, Dave.  Glad to hear things aren't really falling apart as some would like us to believe. 

 

 

Although I will have to admit that, unfortunately, this sounds like 'fake news'...:blink::wacko::rolleyes:.

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1 hour ago, Dave Stephens said:

So, while I'm certainly not here to say: Don't worry, the Federal Gov. will fix it (believe me, I've worked with them for too long to have much faith in anything they attempt), I am letting you know that I feel a modest amount of hope and optimism. I see competent, hard-working people putting everything they have into fixing this thing, and they're doing it with nearly infinite financial backing. 

 

Getting out of this thing is not guaranteed, but I think we've got a solid shot at it. Have faith. The US and the World have endured worse. We will get through this.

 

Glad to hear your perspective Dave. Mine is similar. The whole world wants to fix this. Developments will be coming fast. I've been attacked quite soundly for saying as much on other social media though, so that's about as much as I'm going to speak on the subject. :)

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I see this as a vastly overblown event.

 

Every year we have flu season and during that six months, 10's of thousands of people die in the US. The CDC estimates in 2017/18, US deaths were as high as 61,000 died. Worldwide in the high 100,000's, with most flu deaths occurring in people over 65. Starting to sound familiar?

 

In 2009, we had the Swine Flu, I don't even remember it.  I do remember taking a class at JC Campbell, we still ate family style, ten strangers sharing serving palates and utensils. And by the way, JC Campbell has no hand washing stations in the dining hall.

 

Now mind you, I'm one of those folks that get sick easy. In 2000, I got laid out quick and hard with a flu that once gone, left me with no sense of smell. It was over two years before it returned and I still can't smell most flowers.

In Jan 2015, while at JC Campbell I started to feel a “cold” coming on Wednesday. By Friday morning it was so severe, I left class early and barely made it home. For the next 2 weeks, I was laid flat with symptoms near identical with CV. On week 3, most of the coughing and congestion was gone, but the pressure I felt on my chest and the difficulty in breathing was still persisting. I finally went to a hospital outstation. After a lot of blood work, x ray, and poking & prodding, the doctor said “Sorry, I can't find anything”. It was over a month before I could work.

 

So in spite of being a guy that gets 'sick' easy and 60 years old, I'm not seeing anything that makes me see this as anything but a severe flu. Yes, it's caused me to become more diligent about washing my hands, but that's something I should have already been doing. If it wasn't for the news and social media feeding frenzy, this would be getting about as much attention as the swine flu and wouldn't be consider anything more then another particularly bad flu. Excuse me, bad cold, since it's the same family as the common cold.

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Was curious and went looking.  According to the CDC, 2,067,404 old folks die every year.  The math works out to over 5664 deaths a day for 65 and older.  In the USA, we just went over 5000 attributed to the CV.  First death of CV was 28 Feb, 33 days times 5664 = 186,915 old folks dead.  Of the 5000 CV deaths, how many of them would have been in the 186,915 deaths?  Math is why I don't think the response is appropriate to the threat.

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Over here we're seeing exactly what you would expect from a bunch of freedom fighters turned government and have had 30 years to entrench corruption through the whole system: utter incompetence.

We are in full lockdown, there's some sense to which businesses they allowed to stay open, but there are exceptions that boggle the mind.

Saw in the news that one of the areas with the highest population (tribal/rural) are trying very hard to acquire A ventilator.....and they allowed a mass migration of people back to this area from all over the country hours before the lockdown.....

Massive buildings for per capita the largest civil service in the world, and no new state hospitals in 30 years, and the inherited infrastructure left to rot.

 

Tourism and hospitality industries are taking the biggest knock, one of the larger mines closed down, many businesses laying people off.

 

Idiots at the border posts are barely literate and have zero common sense or leadership, so they effectively cut off our supply (life) line from South Africa.

 

We're one week into working from home, facilitating that has been my personal hell for the last 3 weeks, and I know my employer is taking a huge knock.

 

While I secretly wish this farse  of a civilization takes a dive, I know I'll be somewhere between very hungry or dead before my knives become a barter-worth item.

 

Hope you feel better about where you find yourselves :lol:

 

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i wish our government would just let us get sick and die like it used to so that i could get my job back. too bad all the politicians are old and scared.

 

we have only been on a suggested lockdown for about a week and one of the people i live with cant handle it, she spent a whole day stacking up all of the food here and crying, that was day one or two.  

 

other than that i think its been pretty great to go out and ride a bike, there are only half as many people out driving, its the best thing that has happened to austin in twenty years!

 

i say there are less people out but actually there are about ten times as many people outside "exercising" as normal and they are not normal outside people, so nobody really cares about the quarantine, they just want to go outside and pretend that they arent sick and other people are.  

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4 hours ago, Gerald Boggs said:

Was curious and went looking.  According to the CDC, 2,067,404 old folks die every year.  The math works out to over 5664 deaths a day for 65 and older.  In the USA, we just went over 5000 attributed to the CV.  First death of CV was 28 Feb, 33 days times 5664 = 186,915 old folks dead.  Of the 5000 CV deaths, how many of them would have been in the 186,915 deaths?  Math is why I don't think the response is appropriate to the threat.

 

You're missing the point, it is not and never was about deaths.  The point was and remains trying to keep people healthy enough so as not to overwhelm whatever health care system they have.  A friend of mine is a doctor in New York City.  They are at the very edge of their ability to deal with patients.  Not just CV patients, but ALL patients.  Admittedly, there are going to be some who really don't belong in the hospital, but there are some who do.  So, what is happening there and what will soon happen in New Orleans, all because people won't do what they're supposed to do to limit the spread of what is admittedly just an annoying virus for most people, is why we have these distancing orders. 

 

I am closing this thread, as it's off-topic and dangerously close to getting political.  I let it go as long as I did because we do need a place to vent, but it's become apparent that this forum is not the place.  

 

Peace, gentlemen and ladies, and let's keep it on bladesmithing and related arts and crafts.  Thanks. 

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